Oregon Elephant

Oregon's unemployment basically unchanged...must be due to all those "saved jobs"...

So, the Oregonian is reporting that Oregon's unemployment rate is pretty much unchanged at about 12%, among the highest in the nation.

Wow, I sure am glad we've got Obama...imagine where we'd be if he hadn't spent $700 billion to "save" all those jobs? (Extreme sarcasm)

John McCain...King of Twitter

He's going to be Twittering the "ten porkiest earmarks" of the omnibus spending bill...should be fun.

Former WA Gov. Gary Locke to Commerce - should be good for free trade

As a recent transplant to the Great Northwest, I'm not too familiar with him, but:

• The Oregonian says he'll be good for trade and good for the Northwest
  
  
• Politico says some of the work he did for China might make things difficult
  
  
• and here's a look back at Locke delivering the Democratic response to Bush's State of the Union in 2003

Bobby Jindal to refuse some stimulus money...wow, my hero

Bobby Jindal is going to refuse stimulus money specifically targeted at expanding state unemployment insurance coverage, according to Politico. 

This is big...apparently four Republican governors are saying they'll refuse at least some stimulus money.  I think to win elections, Republicans have to show that they are responsible stewards of the public trust...that they will make sure that government does what it should (build infrastructure, care for those who can't help themselves, protect the country) but who will draw the line on wasteful spending...it's most important that we as Republicans be seen as practicing what we preach. 

Oregon's budget looking worse than expected (which was pretty bad to begin with)

This from the KGW website...it looks like the budget cuts for the state are going to need to be worse than expected...here is a snippet:

They outlined likely reductions Wednesday, including $170 million -- $65 million of which has already been done -- to K-12 education, $19 million to social services and nearly $60 million to public safety.

Those cuts would mean, on average, five fewer days of school for Oregon students. Agencies may also have to delay hiring state troopers, reduce the number of foster care spots and eliminate day care for low-income families.

Why we lost - some data (and analysis)

I was looking at a Gallup report from December 2007 that was pretty interesting.  It compared citizen impressions of Democrats vs. Republicans on a host of issues...

 

It's pretty clear that especially on terrorism, the war in Iraq and the economy, there's been a huge swing in the Democrats' favor.  Is this because of some big proposals by Democrats that we've all fallen in love with?  No.  It's because people simply lost trust in Republicans. 

This is important for our message because of this one simple truth - no one will listen to our ideas if they don't trust us.

Obama, Inigo Montoya and the housing conflict

So on Wednesday this week, the President will unveil his plan to address housing (specifically foreclosures).  In the words of the great Philosopher Inigo Montoya, "let me explain - no, let me sum up":

• The housing/foreclosure problems were caused by lenders making risky loans to people who either couldn't afford a mortgage at all, or couldn't afford the amount they were borrowing.
• Often the lenders were "encouraged" to make these loans through incentives from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (quasi-government organizations).
• Now, President Obama wants to fix the problem by forcing the lender to not foreclose, and further by forcing them to accept a rewriting of the loans. 

In other words, before lenders were coerced with the carrot to give loans to people who couldn't afford it, and now they are forced with the stick (judges will be allowed to arbitrarily rewrite the terms of loans in trouble) to continue providing financing to people who can't afford it.

Oh, and by the way...how do all you people who have worked hard and managed to not overextend yourself, and have managed to pay your mortage every month...how do you feel about this development?  The government is basically rewarding people for being irresponsible.

For more details, see this article in the New York Times.

Believe it or not, the Kremlin could end up owning Oregon Steel...

From the Oregonian (also reported on Drudge!)

The Great Depression, Roosevelt, GDP and DJIA

So, there seems to be a never-ending battle raging between conservatives and liberals concerning FDR, The Great Depression, and the New Deal. 

Critics of Roosevelt, such as Amity Schlaes (author of a book on the subject, The Forgotten Man) and Michael Medved (who writes about it in his new book The 10 Big Lies About America), point to many metrics to show that the economy didn't really improve until the advent of World War II.  One of the chief items is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, or DJIA.  From 1932 to 1938, it didn't go up at all...in fact it went down.  This would seem to show the New Deal as a failure.

However, Roosevelt defenders have another point of view.  They include historian Matthew Dallek, who wrote a column for Politico recently on the subject.  He says the DJIA is the wrong metric to use, because it doesn't really give an indicator of the economy as a whole, only big business.  He states that GDP is a much better metric, and it shows significant improvement from 1932 to 1938.

I'm going to research this some more and maybe try to call in to the Michael Medved show...but what do you think?

Great article in the Oregonian about ex-Gov. Atiyeh

Jeff Mapes has an article in today's Oregonian about ex-Gov. Vic Atiyeh and how he handled the recession in the 80s.  It describes conditions in this way (arguably worse than today:

Oregon's then-dominant timber industry crashed in the wake of sky-high interest rates. Mills closed all over Oregon, leaving behind empty storefronts and a jobless rate that peaked at 12.1 percent in 1982.

What was his response to these problems?  Basic, commonsense solutions:

It might sound like the recipe for disaster, but that carpet salesman turned politician -- Vic Atiyeh -- was a match for the times. He led the Legislature through a painful series of budget cuts and then, concluding no more could be cut, agreed to an income-tax surcharge that voters never challenged.

And in what became his enduring legacy, Atiyeh promoted the state overseas and helped lay the groundwork for a modern Oregon economy that relies heavily on international trade and the high-tech industry.

The article id definitely worth a read.